Gold oil ratio signals stronger gold

It is apparent that another important ratio we look at to determine fair value for gold is the gold-oil ratio. Its particularly interesting to look at this ratio because the oil price has collapsed in recent months, falling from $140/barrel to $40/barrel. The result has been a rise in the gold-oil ratio from 7 to 28. In recent weeks the gold-oil ratio has recovered to 21, as oil prices rose.
Its apparent that the first rally in the gold-oil ratio (measured on the right negative axis) was caused by the fall in oil prices. Having recovered to 21, I believe the next rally in the ratio to 28 will be in the midst of rising oil prices and gold prices. I would contend that the rise in oil prices will be caused by inflation and a weak USD. One might also attribute cuts in OPEC oil production as a cause however this is transitory since OPEC is going to lag in production cuts only for as long as such adjustments prove necessary.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Gold destined for $US2000/oz

Some time ago I suggested that gold was destined to rise to $1400/oz price level. In fact based on current movements in the Dow, I would suggest we are likely to see the gold price rise as high as $US2,000/oz. The basis for this forecast is an important measure of relative price value - the Dow gold ratio. Just as you have price-earnings ratios for stocks and housing affordability indices for property, there are ratios for commodities as well; and they are very bullish for gold.
There are several ways you can trade gold. You can buy gold stocks - blue chips or the juniors, or you can buy the metal from the Perth Mint, or a derivatives such as options, futures or contracts for difference. If you have less confidence in the financial viability of financial institutions, then you would avoid derivatives because you will bear the counter-party risk if the counter-party fails. No one talks about these risks. Its just assumed that counter-parties are of good standing. Don't think that rising asset prices will protect you from that risk.
I have extrapolated the charts above. You can see that to get to a Dow-gold ratio of 4 (the historical low) we need to see gold reach $2,000/oz. That is based on a Dow Jones index of 8,000, and we are just above that now. We have this week been given the signal to buy gold exposure because gold appears to be holding above $900/oz. Another solid rise should see it continue higher.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Dow-gold ratio is quickly moving towards target

The gold price moved over $906/oz again in Monday's trading, giving more credence to the belief that gold is going to rally. Its rather timely that this is happening when bank (broad equities) are reaching an important support level. The Dow-gold ratio is currently 8.91, still well short of the ratio of 4-5 which we would associate with fully priced gold. You might wonder why gold should be fully priced when no other asset class is? The reason is that when its rallying its the only asset class people will have confidence in. Everyone likes a bargain. At this point gold is cheap, and it will remain cheap until it gets dumped.

I expect equities to rally soon. Its the new year, and stocks generally rally at this point, and more importantly stocks have fallen to an important support level. The rally in equities will likely offer good profit potential, but nothing like gold. Already gold equities have been strong for some time now. If you want to know how to pick gold equities - I will refer you to here. As indicated about 6 months ago, based on the expectation of a rally in the Dow to between 8,500-10,000, the gold price could rise as high as $2125-2500/oz. The rise will partly reflect weakness in the USD, but it will also reflect real price gains for gold, so you will benefit in any currency.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

West Texas Intermediate price likely to rally

The West Texas Intermediate crude price shows every sign of having bottomed, so could be considered as offering good buying up to $50, which could be considered a resistance (sell) point in the short-medium term. The slow down in the global economy has placed oil under pressure, and you can expect OPEC to drag the change with respect to any steps to reduce demand. It is for this reason you can expect oil prices to be oversold. OPEC cuts in production will eventually catch up, and you can expect a rebalancing of supply and demand. Don't expect oil prices to fall back to $9/barrel, as we are in very different times. The factors pertinent to today are:
1. Improved policy under Obama
2. Global weakness matched by cuts in OPEN supply
3. Rising inflation
There will likely be consolidation in oil prices in a lower range between $40-50/bbl, and I would expect some good trading opportunities in this range.





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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Gold rallied overnight in the US to $903.60/oz, a 4-month high. The 5% rise of $43/oz was attributed to expectations of a weaker than expected outlook for the global economy and volatile currencies. This is an interesting rationalisation by fundamentalists, but really it reflects no more than technical trading. Basically funds think its a good time to get into gold and they are buying within zones of weakness, and riding the rallies.
As we can see from the chart, gold fell to near $800/oz, so funds started jumping in. It is interesting that gold rallied to $900/oz, but did not break it convincingly. The implication is that gold traders are waiting until Monday to see which way the markets will go. Clearly they will be looking for a lead from the rest of the market. Expect some volatility in gold in coming weeks. Clearly moves of 5% are attractive for traders because gold is a pretty liquid market.
The fact that gold closed below $900/oz at $897/oz is a weak indicator, but the fact that it closed just $5/oz from its high could be considered a sign of strength. One need only compare the current chart with Sept 2008, where the gold rally was quickly sold into over $900/oz. The current strength suggests gold is going higher, though it might not happen for a few days. We need to look for direction from the market. Likely the market will find a lead from the Dow on Monday.
So what about the rationalisations of the gold fundamentalists? Well they are not wrong. Weaker global markets means less growth, reduced tax receipts, subdued earnings, greater welfare spending, tax increases and of course more government debt, and even printing of money at some point for those countries with weak credit ratings. This package of problems of course results in greater inflation since it implies more money and less economic activity.
The markets are not yet suggesting to me a breakout, though we are coming close to that point. Gold has risen to a point where it is making new highs, so that is a bullish sign, though in the short term, gold can still come off, and it might just do that. In these times of weakness its a good idea to buy.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

LME commodities likely to rally - except copper

LME traded metals rallied of late, but looking at historical data I am inclined to think its a short term rally which will be quickly exhausted. Copper and nickel are the far more liquid markets. It would be imprudent to trade it until it forms a new support, whether at the current $3,000 level, or the stronger support at $2,000/tonne. After all, the other metals have fallen to historic levels, and the notion that copper fundamentals are better might just prove to shallow to hold markets.

I tend to think that all the other commodities have reached their lows, and so in the New Year rally, they will present good trading opportunities, particularly as I would expect them to be supported by a weaker USD. I will demonstrate as much on my forex blog.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Lacklustre outlook for gold in the New Year'09

Gold prices have rallied to $885/oz in recent weeks. This is a traders market, so I would be taking profits. The New Year is often a time when the market rallies. I would be expecting a swift kick in the balls anytime soon. there is no basis for a recovery in the metal complex. Even gold prices are not likely to rally just yet. I don't see them taking off until inflation is more prevalent. Market sentiment might be generally stronger though after Xmas, but I would tend to favour the broader market than metals. Gold prices can be expected to fall back to $700/oz. Still that still makes for good earnings for gold prices in Australia, but I would not expect much support just yet.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com