Sunday, February 17, 2008

Nickel stockpiles flat, and prices off their low

Nickel stockpiles are currently consolidating at a 1-year high, and I do believe that prices have found a floor, though I dont see it as time to enter this market just yet until stockpiles start falling. Prices seem likely to respond soon enough since they are close to their lows.

As we can see in this 5yr chart, nickel prices are consolidating at current levels (right chart)
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Copper prices up, stockpiles falling

There is some good news in the market for copper stocks, as copper prices are up to $US3.50/lb, and seem destined to reach $US3.75/lb before they are sold off. The reason for the rise is clearly stronger demand, but also traders in futures covering short term requirements. Mostly its just technical trading. I see copper trading this range for a year to come.
Stockpiles are falling as a result - in fact stocks are plummeting on the LME. See Kitco.
The copper price like alot of commodities is trading in an ascending wedge, and will eventually break out as a result of inflation or debasement of the USD.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Copper prices reach new high

Copper prices have broken out to fresh highs, in fact copper prices are up almost 3% at this point to $US3.40/lb, though I expect prices will pull back to support at $US3.30/lb in coming days. See the charts at http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html. The UK Bank of England has followed the Fed by cutting rates. The prices have limited upside. I dont see prices breaking $3.90/lb, but we can expect institutions to trade the metal between $2.90-3.80/lb. So I see the metal going sideways for some time to come, but with good rallies.
Basically we are looking at copper forming an ascending wedge structure with the apex to be reached in a year or so. I can see it breaking out at that point due to inflation and a weak USD, but I can also see higher interest rates undermining the copper price at some point. The other emerging trend will be the amount of money doing into new mine development around the world. I see this step as a currency management policy to some extent correct the over-investment in US treasury notes (ie. A falling USD). That investment will eventually result in higher mine output whilst higher western inflation will eventually undermine western consumption.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com