Global Mining Investing $69.95, 2 Volume e-Book Set. Buy here.
Author, Andrew Sheldon

Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

Global Mining Investing - see store

Click here for the Book Review Visit Mining Stocks

Download Table of Contents and Foreword

Monday, June 30, 2008

The outlook for oil - $140/barrel and beyond

People might be interested in my thoughts on oil. Some time ago I forecast that oil would go to $140-150/barrel. Well, now that we are there I am thinking abour what is install now for markets. There are some compelling facts about oil:
1. OPEC member states control more than 50% of supply
2. Russia is actually the largest producer, but it consumes more than Saudi Arabia so it exports less
3. Iraq has the largest 2nd largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia
4. There is considerable controversy over whether Arab oil reserves are really as large as stated since OPEC discloses very little.
5. Among the fastest growing users of oils are countries like China and India which actually subsidise supplies. I understand that China recently reduces subsidies causing oil prices to rise 10%(?), but this is still far from market pricing
6. Some prospective oil provinces are locked up, preventing oil exploration, eg. Alaska

When I made my forecast of oil I was using a very simple financial model to determine its price outlook. At this point, I want to perform some more detailed analysis. I will offer some advice about where I think the world is going:
1. China and India will be forced to reduce their subsidies, though the slow pace at which they do it will push oil prices higher. The cost to the country is likely to be the compelling reason for lowering them.
2. The United States and other countries will increase their tax on petroleum. The rationale will be 'resource security' and 'environmental', but more than that it will be a compelling taxation scheme. The US government will need a new tax to replace the 'hole' left by Bush as the economy slows. He has adopted 2 tax cuts to stimulate the economy. There is no fat left on the carcass, so rather than raise income taxes again, I think Obama will adopt higher fuel taxes. We must remember that fuel in the USA is relatively cheap. I expect this will stimulate more use of trains, sale of SUVs, but importantly it will be a discretionary tax to some extent, and the gun-totting SUV user is more likely to be a Republican anyway :)

It goes without saying that oil prices are going a lot higher and that the government will want a piece of the price action. There is no question that the price incentives are already there for oil exploration, so I think the US and other governments will take the opportunity to carve a share out of the oil pie. The proceeds will in many countries be used for nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal (hot rocks), fuel cells, battery (load shaving) power schemes, energy saving subsidies /initiatives, and electric train-based transport systems.

More on my oil price forecast later.
------------------------------------------------
Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Post a Comment
Global Mining Investing $69.95, 2 Volume e-Book Set.
Author, Andrew Sheldon

Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

Global Mining Investing - see store

Click here for the Book Review Visit Mining Stocks

Download Table of Contents and Foreword

Japan Foreclosed Property 2015-2016 - Buy this 5th edition report!

Over the years, this ebook has been enhanced with additional research to offer a comprehensive appraisal of the Japanese foreclosed property market, as well as offering economic and industry analysis. The author travels to Japan regularly to keep abreast of the local market conditions, and has purchased several foreclosed properties, as well as bidding on others. Japan is one of the few markets offering high-yielding property investment opportunities. Contrary to the 'rural depopulation' scepticism, the urban centres are growing, and they have always been a magnet for expatriates in Asia. Japan is a place where expats, investors (big or small) can make highly profitable real estate investments. Japan is a large market, with a plethora of cheap properties up for tender by the courts. Few other Western nations offer such cheap property so close to major infrastructure. Japan is unique in this respect, and it offers such a different life experience, which also makes it special. There is a plethora of property is depopulating rural areas, however there are fortnightly tenders offering plenty of property in Japan's cities as well. I bought a dormitory 1hr from Tokyo for just $US30,000.
You can view foreclosed properties listed for as little as $US10,000 in Japan thanks to depopulation and a culture that is geared towards working for the state. I bought foreclosed properties in Japan and now I reveal all in our expanded 350+page report. The information you need to know, strategies to apply, where to get help, and the tools to use. We even help you avoid the tsunami and nuclear risks since I was a geologist/mining finance analyst in a past life. Check out the "feedback" in our blog for stories of success by customers of our previous reports.

Download Table of Contents here.