Dubious outlook for metals

The current gold market suggests we might be looking at a change in fortunes for the gold market. This next week will be telling; but we might be looking at an overall weak metals market. This would spell a more compelling argument in favour of agricultural commodities in the short term. The problem of course for gold - despite the debasement of global currencies - is the very strong underlying fundamentals of global market liberalisation that have continued unabated since the 1990s, if not before. Earnings in Western countries have remained flat, which means the productivity gains have accrued to businesses to be sure, but also to 'cheap labour' in the third world, whilst more Westerners live off benefits.

We can probably expect a weaker commodity outlook for the next year, but we might see some selective recovery before long, i.e. copper. This of course will not be the end of the commodities story. We are still looking at a commodities 'super-cycle', but things will be off in the short-run, at least in metals. I tend to think agricultural commodities will hold up better, but this is not my market of interest generally.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com