We are very close to having our trend confirmed in the gold market. Gold was on the cusp of a trend change on Friday until the Bernacke-Bush duo conspired to sing the same happy song, but look at what they are offering:
1. Bush is offering creditors support if they have a good credit history - to his credit its better targeted support than the central bank flooding the banking system with liquidity
2. Bernacke providing the market with at least the 'hope' of a rate cut. Its my personal opinion that if he was going to offer a rate cut - it would have come 2 weeks ago.
So the choir singing was a surprise - but it comes no surprise that the performance was out of tune. Am I starting to sound like a nervous central banker. Well, just to offer some technical support to this premise:
1. The gold market rallied $8/oz on the news of the Bush-Bernacke support
2. Bush at least seems to be conveying the message that the US government and Fed are on the same ball team by speaking on the same day (Friday)
The bad news for markets:
1. The Dow has not broken resistance - see Market Commentary
2. The gold price has not broken its previous high. Instead it was sold off from $675/oz to $672.
So I think its premature to take a position in the precious metals market or stocks. At this point I see all markets being sold off - but the precious metals market will eventually shine.
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