We can see that the ratio is currently 10, though in the past its been on a trend which would see it valued at 20 at least. This chart is interesting because it poses more questions than it answers. Note that it extends back 170 years, back to the time when they started producing oil. If we accept that the ratio is going to 20 (and that is conservative), then we are looking at oil prices of $30/barrel or gold prices of around $1500/oz. Of course there could be some comprise on both commodities, or the central banks can play with their funny money more, so that in nominal terms both commodities rise. It will not change anything, gold will out-perform energy by a factor of 2:1 for this trend to stay true. I don't see oil prices weakening any further, but I will take a look at oil prices to convince myself.
Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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