Latest gold price outlook - Oct 2008

This is my latest revised price forecast for the gold price in $US terms based on the historically important Dow-gold price ratio. This index has a history extending back 110 years, and it shows a nice correlation with the Dow Jones Index.




There is of course a reason why the gold price has an inverse correlation with the Dow Jones. Gold is a real asset, and the Dow Jones is an index of real assets (i.e. companies) measures in terms of paper currency. The price of those assets in terms of paper depends ultimately on how much paper is created to support nominal asset prices. Asset prices are currently falling. I believe that the Dow Jones will find support aroung 7500 points, from which point it is likely to recover. Looking at the chart, its apparent that the Dow-gold ratio is repeating a cycle that occurred in the 1920s, the 1960s and now the 2000s. On the last 2 occasions, periods of excess money creating were followed by events which saw the Dow-gold price ratio fall to a value of 4. Assuming that the Dow finds support at 7500, we are looking at a gold price of $1875/oz. But of course the USD will have little value in future, so expect real assets like the Dow index to far exceed these values in USD terms. Its not so much that these asset prices are going down, but that the USD is going to be debased out of existence. The implication is that the Dow and gold price could go far higher still.
This story looks like a conspiracy theory, but on reflection it makes a lot of sense. The naive might believe that this market crisis was sudden and unexpected, but if you had been reading about the role of gold and money in the economy for the last decade, you would know that we have been looking at a crisis for some time. I learned this about a decade ago, though it took me some time to appreciate what would ultimately cause the crisis. If a great many investors knew, you can be sure the US government knows. Afterall they wanted to benefit from it. It might actually be more sordid than you think. Its possible than the US government intentionally borrowed and funded the US deficit with debasing USD with the intent of defaulting or paying them back in worthless paper. Financially cunning to be sure, but not the best policy in global diplomacy. Maybe the US government wants a war with China before they get to powerful. Anyway read up on this claim that the USA is already minting a new USD. To my mind China is involved in this policy because it has benefited from 2 decades of unprecedented industrial expansion. It has brought them closer to the USA, not further apart. Its 2 fascist states looking themselves in the mirror. See http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1954933468700958565&hl=es. The story seems far-fetched, but consider that if you were going to debase a current (USD) as the government has been doing, then you would have a plan for overcoming the problem. It makes you wonder why George didn't have a plan for Osama or Katrina. Maybe those issues were not the real issues. When it comes to politics, you have to question everything. These smart-arses really twist perceptions. Its enough to make one turn to conspiracy theories for ones daily news.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com